د. حسام بدراوي الموقع الرسمي
Egypt’s revolution.. people’s democracy
By Dr.Hossam Badrawi
1-7-2013
Today Egypt is again on the verge of another revolution, and again with vague leadership of the demonstrators against the MBs and president Morsy. Let me give you a background of the situation that lead to the current situation and then share with you my analysis for the future.
Over one year of rule of MBs, since Mr Morsy won the presidential elections by less than 1% difference against his opponent after excluding all other candidates in the first run, the political situation has been acute and intense.
Egypt seems under this rule to be moving toward a potentially catastrophic political conflict starting today the 30th of June 2013
the “democratically elected” president and his regime broke all the rules and covenants of legitimacy. In November of last year, The Supreme Court was besieged by the president’s followers for more than 30 days to obstruct justice and delay the sentencing in two crucial cases related to the constitutionality of both the Constituent Assembly and the Upper House (the Shoura Council).
During these days the president bestowed on himself the right to legislate and immunized all his decrees from legal pursuit. He removed the Prosecutor General, breaking his constitutional oath and appointed the man of his choice, breaking yet again his constitutional limits. He thus became the Superman ruler of Egypt: the CEO, the legislator and the magistrate.
The MBs , with their president , who only speak to them, has created institutional enemies everywhere all the time . Media, Judges, intellectuals, tourism sector, police officers,professionals, academia and workers has all been alleniated one way or another either by violent actions, or appointment of incompetent MBs in leading positions , or proposed laws of exclusion together with threats to all privet TV stations , reporters and privet sector big companies.
The Morsi government has succeeded to generate this ill-advised militancy single handed in only few months. He broke promises to seek consensus with secular and opposition forces. After forcing through the constitution which divided the country ,he tried non stop to impose his control over the judiciary, media and civil society groups. MBs also has devised laws that would tilt future elections in its favor.
Perhaps more significantly, the government has infuriated average Egyptians with its poor management. Cities are plagued with power outages and fuel shortages, inflation and unemployment are growing and investment is dormant. A long-promised deal with the International Monetary Fund has never been completed, and only suspected bailouts from Qatar and Libya have kept Egypt from exhausting its reserves of hard currency.
The Tamarod or “rebel” movement , a movement of young Egyptians , with no known previous leadership , has called for Egyptians to move to the streets today ,Sunday the 30th of June (,the anniversary of President Mohamed Morsy) in order to force him from office and force MBs out of ruling position.. The movement claims to have collected more than 22 million signatures on a petition calling for new presidential elections. MBs claims that this agenda has no legal or constitutional mechanism for carrying it out.
Many Egyptians has hoped for what would amount to a new revolution or perhaps a military coup. Today it seems clear that Tamarod have succeeded in mobilizing millions of Egyptians , like never before , not only in Cairo but all over the country . The scene is even more great than the January revolution 2011.
It is a revolution against the myopic, fanatic vision of MBs . Egypt is demonstrating to the whole world that it cannot be engulfed by extremists .
My view is that MBs ,street opposition ,confrontation is unlikely to benefit either the Islamist government nor its mostly secular opposition, but it could jeopardize Egypt’s hopes for consolidating a stable democracy or addressing its profound economic problems , depending upon what happens next.
The real challenge is that leaders of opposition group actually do not control the opposition at the street level, but are trying to ride their movements.
Now ,If mass protests succeed in prompting the government’s downfall or a military coup, it is said by some analysts that any future elected government will be subject to the same tactics. And no administration will be able to tackle Egypt’s economic dysfunction, which will require painful reform measures, as long as the country remains polarized.
I do not agree upon such analysis , as what president Morsi and the Mosslim Brotherhood movement has done to the country , dividing the people, ignoring the reality of the Egyptian secular society, with the incompetence in governing Egypt is unprecedented . If any government or president act the same way, in the future, then they deserve the same fate.
The US now is proposing, a workable way forward in which Mr. Morsi agrees to major compromises with the opposition, including constitutional reforms, the withdrawal of harmful legislation concerning the judiciary and nongovernmental organizations and an end to the prosecution of opponents. In exchange, opposition leaders should stop trying to overthrow the government and begin working to win the next election.
Again I don’t think this is fair to Egypt as any premature parliamentary elections within the same laws under the current constitution will lead to a false majority for Islamists again. Constitution should be first amended , preventing the use of religion in political campaigns and allow fair chance to minorities in the society to be represented.
I believe , if what I see in the street today , continue for 5 more days and may be less, that the government will fall and I have no droughts that the armed forces will side with the people. Police officers has also showed their position supporting the revolution. This is not an analyses but first hand information.
Knowing the psychology of MBs I expect their leaders to escape from the country and leave their young brain washed followers to fight their battle.
Now what are the options for Egypt, if the second revolution succeeds. Military rule would not be accepted, however Military protection and support to a transient period is mandatory. The difference between this period and the similar period after January 2011 should be in mind not to do the same mistakes. After January the military leadership , gave the MBs the keys of the country , thinking that they have control on the street, and afraid of their threats to destabilize the country. However , what happens today and in the coming few days will prove that the average Egyptian do not support MBs nor their ways.
I would suggest , a new cabinet , lead by well known economist, better not to be politically painted by any of the current parties, and be internationally recognized . The state otherwise to be administered by the supreme council judge with an objective of amending the constitution and related laws before calling for presidential elections within a year. During this year other players will appear in the stage and people would not be cornered to chose from the current political leadership.
Then parliamentary elections should take place under the new constitution and laws.
Pushing for premature parliamentary elections, or early presidential election within 60 days or having a presidential council of current leaders of opposition , may lead to chaeos again.
At the end , looking at Iran, Pakistan , Afghanistan and Sudan , I think Egyptian in one year has come up with a miracle rejecting religious extremists , and announcing a scheduled revolution in a historical unprecedented move.
Hossam Badrawi