The Arab Spring, Fiction vs. Reality (Monaco Mediterranean Foundation)

The Arab Spring, Fiction vs. Reality 

(Monaco Mediterranean Foundation) Monaco, March 2015 

By Prof. Hossam Badrawi 

 

Most people assume that if you can touch an object, taste it, smell it, or hit something with it, it must be real, and their knowledge of its reality is based on the direct apprehension of the facts at hand. Fiction, on the other hand, because it is made up by our minds, is not a fact we can apprehend directly, and is thus either considered false or unreal. 

The argument here is that the reverse can also be true. By that I mean that fiction is inherently more ‘true’ than fact, or at least equally true. And that what we call facts are actually nothing more than good fictions- ones which we deem most reasonable to accept or made by someone so reasonable to be accepted. 

Now, if there is no direct apprehension and all facts are coming to us via media, the way it is presented, the way it is projected and the way it is analyzed, don’t you think that merger between fiction and reality can easily happen to the receiver . 

I was taught as a politician that perception is reality in the eyes of the public even without evidences. Evidences, whether true or fiction, could be created, made to be discovered, published and insinuated in the minds of people. 

All science fiction movies or dreams or even those who used science to come up with theories then try to prove it were dreamers and fictionists in a way. May be there is no reality without a preceded fiction. 

I read once to a famous Egyptian writer in a book published 1949, Abbass Al Akad,  before the internet, or discoveries of the genome or how much we use of our brain capacity, he wrote and I quote “nothing would cross a human mind that will not be a reality one day. So long as it crossed the mind it means the possibility of realization”. 

I am a scientist, who started his research in scanning electron microscopy at the late seventies in Wayne state university in Michigan. At that time seeing 3D animal and human cell magnified thousands of time was magic. Since then my interest in bringing babies to life as an obstetrician and gynecologists was fired by studying biology and later on some biophysics. Presenting pictures of ciliated cells overmagnified thousands of times in 3 D did looked like under the sea or in the space . 

The reality discovered was a fiction of what is inside the human body.

There has been numerous attempts to predict the future, many useful and insightful. However, they were mainly written by historians, sociologists, science fiction writers, and futurists that are outsiders, who are predicting the world but not making it themselves. They see the present, analyze the past and value the scientific discoveries and predict the future as if the future is self made. 

Politicians are now more involved, knowing and using sociologists, mastering movement of the masses, the butterfly effect theory, the domino consequences, and they interfere to create their own fictions and future realities. 

Let me take you with me to fiction / reality of our earth and the whole universe before I go back to the so called Arab Spring. 

There are 2 fundamental pillars upon which modern physics rests. One is Albert Einstein, general relativity, which provides a theoretical framework for understanding the Universe on the largest scales: stars, galaxies, clusters of galaxies-and beyond to the immense expanse of the Universe itself.  

The other is the quantum mechanics, which provides theoretical framework for understanding the Universe on the smallest scales: molecules, atoms and all the way down to the subatomic particles like electrons and quarks 

All over a century of research, it was thought that general relativity and quantum mechanics cannot both be right. The two theories underlying the tremendous progress of physics during the last hundred years — progress that has explained the laws of the heavens and the fundamental structure of the matter seemed incompatible. 

Superstring theory, later in the 20th century, answered a lot of questions. Intense research over the past decade and mathematicians around the world has revealed that this new approach to describing matter at its most-fundamental level resolves the tension between the 2 theories. According to the superstring theory, the marriage of the laws of the large and small is not only happy but inevitable as Brian Green, famous physicist, said. 

Ladies and gentlemen, stay with me; let us get to the basic idea: 

The string theory proclaims that the smallest particles constituting the physical basis of the matter whatever it is, where ever it is, consist of a tiny (beyond our capacity to recognize) one dimension loop. Each particle contains a vibrating, oscillating, dancing filament that has been named string. 

Everything in the Universe is not a matter but vibrating filaments, and according to the vibration the matter as we perceive it, it becomes. 

Einstein was simply ahead of his time. More than half a century later, his fiction and dream of a unified theory has become a reality. A sizable part of the physics and mathematics community is becoming increasingly convinced that string theory may provide the answer for everything. 

From one principle that everything at its most micro-microscopic level consists of combinations of vibrating strands, just like the strings on a violin or a piano, creating the musical notes in their higher harmonies. Or like the letters in a language, as fewer as they made our great history of literature and conversation between us. For this reason the string theory is referred to as possibly the theory of everything. 

What is this has to do with my presentation? 

whatever we see ladies and gentlemen is as it looks, or at least actually depends upon the perception of our senses. All matter is oscillating strings, energy, and if we do not exist, it does not exist. Whether in science or on social aspects, it is finally only a reality depending upon the perceiving mind.  

As a matter of fact everything is related. All fictions were translated into reality in science. The political science and sociology is not different..  

Gustave Le Bon was a French social psychologist, sociologist, anthropologist, inventor, and amateur physicist. He is best known for his 1895 work The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind.  

He explained that this new entity that emerges from incorporating the assembled population not only forms a new body but also forms a collective “unconsciousness.” As a crowd gathers together and coalesces there is a “magnetic influence given out by the crowd or from some other cause of which we are ignorant” that transmutes every individual’s behavior until it becomes governed by the ’group mind’.  

This model treats ‘The Crowd’ as a unit in its composition and robs every individual member of their opinions, values and beliefs. As he says in one of his famous statements, “An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand amid other grains of sand, which the wind stirs up at will”. 

Le Bon detailed three key processes that create ‘The Crowd’ behavior, Anonymity, Contagion and Suggestibility.  

Anonymity provides to rational individuals a feeling of invincibility and the loss of personal responsibility. An individual becomes primitive, unreasoning, and emotional.   

Contageny refers to the spread in the crowd of particular behaviors (e.g. rioter’s smashing windows) where individuals sacrifice their personal interest for the collective interest.  

Suggestibility is the mechanism through which the contagion is achieved. As the crowd coalesces into a singular mind suggestions made by strong voices in the crowd create a space for the ‘racial unconscious’ to come to the forefront and guide its behavior. At this stage ‘The Crowd’ becomes homogeneous and malleable to suggestions from its strongest members. 

Those who leads the crowd are with large voices can direct and drive the group. Those are trainable individuals nowadays and the path of any large demonstrations could be determined to a large extent. 

Using the technology of today, gathering people and working upon their psyche, is an art where non bordered communications made it possible and achievable. 

The positive collective mind of a crowd in a football game can make the stadium play with a team and against the other. As we now understand, energy that motivates people could be created. The collective consciousness of a crowd can create matter. Historical leaders, used to do that in their crowds, creating positive energy towards their messages. 

My long introduction meant to give scientific background for you to cope with what happened where I live in the last 4 years and my story tells. 

 

The Arab Springs. 

 

The Arab Spring refers to a revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests (both non-violent and violent), riots, and civil wars in the Arab world that began on 18 December 2010, and spread throughout the Arab Countries and its surroundings.  

The term was a reference historically to the turmoil in Eastern Europe in 1989, when seemingly powerful Communist regimes began falling down under pressure from mass popular protests in a domino effect. In a short period of time, most countries in the former Communist bloc adopted democratic political systems with a market economy in contrast to the events in the Middle East which went in a different direction. Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen entered an uncertain transition period; Syria and Libya were drawn into a civil conflict, while the wealthy monarchies in the Gulf remained largely unshaken by the events. 

In the aftermath of the Iraq War it was used by various commentators and bloggers who anticipated a major Arab movement towards democratization. (The fiction) 

 The first specific use of the term Arab Spring as used to denote these events actually started with the American political journal Foreign Policy. Marc Lynch, referring to his article in Foreign Policy, the term was “part of a US strategy of controlling [the movement’s] aims and goals” and directing it towards American-style liberal democracy (fiction) or controlled chaos (the reality)  

As tradition , the father  of the newly born has a right  to name his baby, hence the origin of the name coming from the US . Some refers to the ongoing large-scale conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa as a continuation of the Arab Spring, while others refer to the aftermath of revolutions and civil wars post mid-2012 as the Arab Winter. 

Anyway, all uprisings and revolutions, relative success and outcome remain largely disputed within Arab people, among foreign observers, and between world powers looking to cash in on the changing map of the Middle East. 

However, it is noticeable that the protests had shared techniques of civil resistance in sustained campaigns involving strikes, demonstrations, marches, and rallies, as well as the effective use of social media to organize, communicate, and raise awareness in the face of states attempts to repress crowd  movement or block  their communication. 

 Later on it was revealed that that many leaders of young protesters were actually trained and financed in Eastern Europe by intelligence of major influential countries.  This was even not denied by them when revolutions succeeded in collapsing governments. 

 Political protesters in monarchies like Jordan and Morocco wanted to reform the system under the current rulers, some calling for an immediate transition to constitutional monarchy, others content with gradual reform. People in republicans regimes like Egypt and Tunisia wanted to overthrow the president, but other than free elections they had little idea on what to do next.  Beyond calls for greater social justice there was no magic wand for the economy.  

Leftist groups and unions wanted higher wages and a reversal of privatization deals, Hard-line Islamists were more concerned with enforcing strict religious norms seeking the opportunity of political vacuum created after those revolutions, whether intended, planned for or not to get to the power either relatively or absolutely.  

I cannot ignore the pilot project of the US demonstrated in invading Iraq,, after building a world belief (fictions vs. reality) that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction (proved to be false) and decided to send a whole army home (was considered one of the strongest 15 armies in the world), demolish all institutions, and create the social and political vacuum that was followed by chaos, civil war, loss of oil wealth and nowadays the appearance of the fanatic so called Islamic State. 

All political parties in counties of revolutions promised more jobs, democracy and respect of human rights but none came close to developing a program with concrete economic policies. Democracy was only seen in ballot of voting but all what precede voting or follow elections were full of frauds that evacuated democracy from its core.

Now ,Was Arab Spring a Success or Failure? 

It has been disappointing to those hoping that the removal of perceived corrupt rulers would translate into an instant improvement in living standards. Chronic instability in countries undergoing political transitions have put additional strain on struggling local economies, and deep divisions have emerged between the Islamists and secular citizens who had the dream of freedom and separation of the church/ mosque from the state. 

The conspiracy thriller (or paranoid thriller) is a subdivision of thriller fiction. The protagonists of conspiracy thrillers were historically journalists or amateur investigators who find themselves (often inadvertently) pulling on a small thread which unravels a vast conspiracy that ultimately goes “all the way to the top.” 

The complexities of historical facts nowadays, with the flow of informations over the internet and YouTube has revealed huge numbers of assumed facts and news, everyone is a hero and every one is a devil.  The confusion between fiction and reality is as deep as it was never before. It is an unbelievable situation with all the leaks of information that made people adjusted to see, listen and read conflicting news and probably lose trust in everything said to them.    

The difficulty in asserting the truth amid the deceptions: rumors, lies, propaganda, and counter-propaganda build upon one another is being so difficult, as what is conspiracy and what is coincidence became entangled. 

 

The Islamic State 

The enormously complicated situation in the Middle East has been magically transformed, and simplified, with the emergence of the IS. Everyone has quickly forgotten that Washington’s ‘Arab Spring’ project  which failed spectacularly, and are now looking together for protection against the ‘Jihadist threat’ from those who created this threat. The most telling example is the improbable humility of oil-rich countries in the Gulf regarding the drop in oil prices detrimental to themselves. Surprisingly, the falling curve of oil quotations came after reports of the Islamic State’s military successes.  

The conventional analysis on the rise of IS no longer suffices. Tracing the movement to Oct 2006 when the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), uniting various groups including AlQaeda was established, simply suggests a starting point to the discussion, whose roots go back to the dismantling of the Iraqi state and army by the US military occupation authority. Just the idea that the Arab republic of Iraq was lead from 11 May, 2003 until 28 June, 2004 by a Lewis Paul Bremer III, is enough to delineate the unredeemable rupture in the country’s identity. Bremer and US military chiefs’ manipulation of Iraq’s sectarian vulnerabilities, in addition to the massive security vacuum created by sending an entire army home, ushered in the rise of numerous groups, some homegrown resistance movements, and other alien bodies who sought in Iraq a refugee. 

Also conveniently missing in the rise of “Jihadism” context is the staggering brutality dominated governments in Baghdad and militias throughout Iraq, with full backing by the US and Iran. If the US war (1990-1), blockade (1991-2003), invasion (2003) and subsequent occupation of Iraq were not enough to radicalize a whole generation, then brutality, marginalization and constant targeting of Iraqi citizens in post-invasion of Iraq have certainly done the job. 

Serious experts are now in little doubt that the US administration was the ‘midwife’ of the Islamic State (IS).  

Renowned Israeli analyst and former head of its ultra-secretive intelligence agency 

Jacob Kedmi, says that the US is now trying to use the tactic of setting moderate Islam against radical Islam, which was «successfully employed in Russia». It is not turning out well for the US, however, considering that for the last three years the Americans have acted as allies of the IS in Syria, and before that were allies of alQaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. 

At the same time, nothing is being done to curb the illegal shipments of oil from territories seized by IS militants; the cost of these shipments has already reached almost a billion $, allowing the game of lowering prices to be played. And flow of weapons to continue. 

One important outcome from lowering oil prices is to hinder investment in renewable energies as it comes again to be much more expensive. Countries like Egypt can change its fate and create a different economic future from energy from the sun and winds.  

When Barack Obama announced that the strengthening of the Islamic State caught the US intelligence community by surprise, one high-ranking Pentagon official exclaimed in surprise: «Either the president doesn’t read the intelligence he’s getting or he’s bullshitting». 

We should not forget the old British tactic of using ‘jihadists’ to serve the interests of its policy dates back to the time of Laurence of Arabia and to the even earlier period of the Caucasian wars of the 19th century, when the British, having started the ‘Great Game’ with the Russian Empire,  

After the Second World War, London took great pains to create the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Egypt and to help spreading them in whole the Middle East to counterbalance the Arab socialism that was gaining momentum there. It is also known that this experience was used by Israel, which, as Jacob Kedmi acknowledges, helped or «did not prevent» the creation of Hamas as a rival to Fatah, which was more influential at that time. 

On the other hand, however, the Islamic State is becoming an increasingly dangerous weapon that could seriously wound its creator. Following reports that the US Air Force had allegedly killed ‘caliph’ Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, an audio recording emerged in which he denied the premature rumors of his death and announced the expansion of the self-proclaimed caliphate. 

 According to al-Baghdadi, as well as a third of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State now also controls parts of Yemen, and parts of other Arab countries.  Al-Baghdadi called for soldiers of the caliphate to join allied groups in order to «erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere», especially in Saudi Arabia. Kurdish sources believe that a more realistic number has joined as many as 200,000, with a population of nearly 12 million people under their control. 

A recently released video shows a map of the Islamic State with ‘conquered’ territories and groups from Yemen, Tunisia, Libya and Algeria swearing oaths of allegiance to   Al-Baghdadi. The Islamic State is declared the successor to Osama bin Laden’s        Al-Qaeda.  

Its goals are stated as being the conquest of the whole of the Middle East, followed by Rome and then Al-Andalus (the Iberian Peninsula). After restoring the borders of the historic caliphate, the Islamic State will turn to the East to conquer China and Japan.  

The final phase will be the conquest of America. The video also contains images of the beheading of Syrian prisoners in which representatives of various nationalities perform the role of executioner (citizens of Belgium, France, Britain and Australia have been identified, as well as an Uzbek and a Malaysian). 

From a military point of view, of course, plans for the worldwide expansion of the ‘ISIS’ seem like the fruit of an exalted imagination. However, it is impossible to underestimate the fanaticism of ideas and the overall scale of the threat. 

Young Muslims, stirred up by the Washington-inspired ‘Arab Spring’ and then disillusioned with it, are looking for new ideological orientations. This danger has already moved beyond, or is just about to move beyond, the Middle East.   

Humanity has never been faced with such acts of terrorism and expected ‘bioterrorism’, and the consequences are impossible to imagine. IS terrorist groups did not come from nowhere, but are «the fruit of the mistaken and aggressive policies of those who have waged wars in the Middle East».  

Balance of power in the Middle East:  

Apparently, the emerging configuration of regional and inter-regional alliances will be qualitatively different from anything we’ve seen over the past 100 years, beginning with the Sykes-Picot agreement in 1916 and the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. This means, if not the actual demolition, the profound erosion of hitherto existing borders between the countries of the region drawn by Britain and France. It is already clear that a number of countries have few prospects to remain in their current form.


++ The future of Egypt , the largest country in the Middle East, one third of Arab population, also looks a little foggy. Destabilized by MB from inside which we know they are the origin of the whole philosophy of the Islamic State, and of external forces particularly the US, turkey and funding from Qatar.  

Can Egypt withstand the pressure of created proliferating internal and external problems? Mind you that Egypt is one of the oldest countries in the history of mankind and it’s collapse or further weakening will make the waiting list of other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, only a consequence of the processes occurring in the region to implode the world order. 

 It is obvious that any new dividing lines, the duration of which will be determined by the balance of forces of the newly formed alliances between the old and new players in the regional field will be changing of future of the rest of the world. 

What are the balancing forces being formed? 

The nearing deadline to conclude negotiations between Iran and the US on Iran’s nuclear project these days, this year ,has exposed the fact that the Middle East has come to a point creating a new power entity in the area . 

To the majority of Arab states it is clear that the conclusion of the US-Iranian deal on the Iranian nuclear program and other issues of regional importance (as it has become clear that Washington and Tehran actively agree on the division of spheres of influence) will turn Iran into the new regional leader. This is despite the arguments against it put forth by US Secretary of State John Kerry, who tried during his visit to       Riyadh on March 5 to reassure the Arabian monarchy that allegedly the agreement on future limitations on Iran’s nuclear policy will not affect other aspects of Iranian foreign policy, and that Washington, as before, will actively resist Iranian expansionism. 

We should not be fooled; the battle between the lately empowered Iran by the US and the created ISIS by the US will turn neither Iran nor ISIS into a friend to America. Iran and ISIS will compete for the crown of militant Islam.”         


Naturally, in the White House no one thinks that Iran in its present form has become a friend of the United States. The discussion centers on a more remote calculation –(in the fiction stage) removing sanctions would significantly strengthen the position of the pro-American liberals in Iran among the major bourgeoisie interested in regime change and prevent Tehran from using Islam as a foreign policy tool for expansion. ( fiction) 

In Egypt and in other countries, attempts through revolution to bring “the Muslim Brotherhood”,(the extremely non democratic) which is still very friendly to Washington, to power not only caused the resistance and fear to the Gulf states, but also provoked the most intense conflicts, primarily in Syria and Libya and definitely created very negative atmosphere between Egypt and US . 

I will go back to the Muslim Brothers, in Egypt for clarification later on as I said they are the brains behind the violence and the philosophers of the Islamic State. 

In view of these processes a new paradigm materialized in the region cast in the form of Sunni and Shiite opposition, and in essence– the confrontation of Iran and  Saudi Arabia, Small rich Gulf countries and possibly Egypt having the strongest army. 

This Arab Sunni alliance, for its own survival, will be forced to a greater or lesser rapprochement with Israel, ( another fiction) which is concerned not so much with Iranian nuclear weapons as with the expansion of Tehran’s influence, regardless of whether it possesses nuclear weapons or not.  

Hence the widespread rumors of the impending deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel on the Palestinian issue, (which will open the way to a direct alliance of Zionists and Wahhabists.) (Fiction in the largest scale coming close to reality) 

The strengthening of Tehran’s regional position and the formation of an independent Kurdistan, or one in confederal relations with Baghdad, is obviously a blow to Turkey’s position, as well as its claims to regional leadership under the guidance of Erdogan.  

Turkey is attempting to resist these processes through the tactic connivance with ISIS actions, as well as attempts, if not to overthrow the pro-Iranian Assad regime, then to gain direct or indirect control of the north of the country, providing support for the so-called “moderate” Syrian opposition.   

Turkey is playing a major role in supporting Muslim Brothers, and providing shelter for them after 30th of June up rise against them in Egypt. 

However, it is clear that Washington‘s flirtation with Tehran, including through its interactions with the Shiite militia fighting ISiS, greatly reduces the chances of Ankara preserving its Middle Eastern gains. The Turkish response to the rapprochement between Washington and Tehran has manifested as an independent Turkish policy in relations with Russia, strengthening their energy alliance. However, we cannot exclude that Ankara, counteracting the rise of Iran, will begin to strengthen its position on the energy front by creating new energy transportation systems with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. 

The big question is whether Washington will be able to get Turkey and Iran, in the context of growing rivalry between them, to agree on the formation of a gas transportation corridor from Iran to Europe in order to reduce the energy dependence of the EU on Russian gas. So far, while the current regime remains in Tehran, prospects are poor. The priorities of all the key players do not coincide. Mind you all , a great part of what happened in Syria was about transportation of Gas and energy.


For completeness, we should direct our attention to the attempts of Saudi Arabia, under the new King Salman, to form an alliance with Egypt’s armed forces. Riyadh expects to win an approval at the summit of the Arab League on March 28-29 for the idea of creating unified armed forces of the Arab League with the participation of Egypt, KSA, Kuwait, and the UAE.  

It is not accident that at the last donor conference in Sharm el-Sheikh on March 12-13 the Gulf monarchies announced an aid package to Cairo of 12 billion dollars. It is clear that one good turn deserves another. According to the plan of Riyadh, no matter how illusory this alliance may look, it can materialize even more if Turkey’s support is obtained for joint opposition to the hegemonic aspirations of Tehran. Today Turkey as a main Shelter to MBs and Egypt are in a very big conflict and this question was the main issue of the recent (February 28 – March 2) negotiation by Erdogan in Riyadh. The Gulf cannot stand against Iran without Egypt and they want the Turkish support. 

 

Russia and china 

At the same time, all major regional players, Egypt, Saudi, Turkey and Israel are analyzing the actions of the US to lift the sanctions against Iran, the development of ISIS, the division and war in Yemen ,possible control of world trade at the entrance of the red sea,  and the reaction of Russia and China. 

It seems logical After all, the United States, based on its own strategies to preserve global domination, now must regroup its forces to increase pressure on China and Russia, which are challenging US hegemony and actively working to create a multi-

polar system of international relations instead of the failed formula of a unipolar world. 


In other words, the leading states in the Middle East are preparing for the period when they do not have to rely on Washington, first, because of its unwillingness to take up the task of maintaining regional stability, and second, because of its unreliability as a partner, as the period of the so-called Arab revolutions showed to everyone. 

Let me remind you that The core of the Palestinian issue and the historical fight between Arabs and Israel, for over 65 years ,was the 6  million Palestinian refugees all over the world,  In the last  few years, this region has accumulated, 5 million Iraqi, 4 million Syrian, 300K Yemeni, and 400k Libyan refugees. 

Think of the consequences in the future of those refugees whom most of them were living mostly stable life only few years ago. 

Conclusion 

Ladies and gentlemen, if Einstein has proven that the universe is that huge but connected and related, and if the string theory has confirmed that all matter are made of energy and there is unification of the building block of everything, if science is accumulating innovation and inventions in few years to bring solutions to humanity more than what has happened in the whole  history of mankind and if we have a little wisdom to see the future, we must conclude that we in south of Mediterranean are so close to Europe north of this lake, and we are connected and our future cannot be separated from each other.  

Human race has all the chances to create new energy, food, and overcome poverty and ignorance, but we are left to closed minded ,short sighted politician who thrives on war and conflicts, creating black fiction and transforming the world into a large battle field. 

My message is that we should work together, create positive energy and lead our people to a better life, and we can do it. We should not just wait and see the future of mankind being written by the few. 

The Story of Egypt 

The 2011 uprising left the security apparatus in Egypt only partially intact, and the military regained their autonomy but the question of who would hold political office was open to negotiation. It seems to me that the generals didn’t mind trying out the power-hungry Islamists. They were more organized than the activists who sparked the revolt, and the only alternative to the potentially organized remnants of the NDP which was the objective of organized political attacks and character assassination by the revolutionists, Islamists and actually clearly not welcomed by the generals SCAF.  

MBs didn’t pose, at the time, any threat to military privileges. Actually I believe  they had no intention of dismantling the infrastructure of dictatorship and submitting themselves to the volatile moods of a democratic process; they just wanted to take Mubarak’s place at the top.  

On February 2011, while the protesters were still entrenched in Tahrir Square, Morsi and the future head of the Brothers’ Freedom and Justice Party, Saad al-Katatni, entered into secret negotiations with the intelligence chief, Omar Soliman for a larger share of power in return for stopping the revolt. I attended one of those meetings on February 5th, in which Morsi represented MBs, few days after escaping from his prison with the help of militant attacks, suspected at the time, to be assisted by Hamas. I personally put the inquiry to VP Soliman, and he asked me to trust him and to not create more turbulence in negotiations as so much is going on beyond what appears on the surface. I was excluded from any negotiation and totally put in the dark for fear of not being a team player, as posed by some of the president aids who considered my presence as a threat to the regime and did not approve my appointment to lead the ruling party to start with. 

Once Mubarak was ousted, the Islamists pushed for and adopted the military-security program: elections first, constitution and reform later. Those few who argued, including myself, that new democracies need to establish some basic guidelines before rushing to the ballot box were dismissed and attacked. 

Throughout the transitional period, the Brothers blamed the protesters for the violence directed at them by the state–they were staging illegal protests, after all – and repeatedly alleged that the activists were pawns of foreign intelligence services. In parliament, they took every opportunity to praise Egypt’s law enforcers and blocked every attempt to hold them accountable.  

As soon as Morsi was sworn in, he congratulated the police for reforming themselves, audaciously referring to them as esteemed partners in the 2011 uprising. Needless to say, security abuses surged during Morsi’s short tenure, and official coercion was reinforced by the Brothers’ own militias. They aimed to tune all forces to the benefit of maintaing their grasp on power. 

The Brothers believed that sacrificing revolutionaries was morally and practically justified. They felt entitled to exclusive rule after decades of toil. They had spent their best years behind bars: why should they now share power with a bunch of political adolescents? And how could the guardians of Islam ally themselves with irreverent secularists? As for the security apparatus, even if it could be dismantled, why would they want that when it was such an asset to them being in control. It isn’t hard to understand the cynicism that greeted the Brothers last June when they accused the protesters of selling out the revolution and allowing the police state to ‘return’. 

 The “democratically elected” MBs president Morsi and his regime broke all the rules and covenants of legitimacy. In November 2012, the Supreme Court was besieged by the president’s followers for more than 30 days to obstruct justice and delay the sentencing in two crucial cases related to the constitutionality of both the Constituent Assembly and the Upper House (the Shoura Council). 

During these days the president bestowed on himself the right to legislate and immunized all his decrees from legal pursuit. He removed the Prosecutor General, breaking his constitutional oath and appointed the man of his choice, breaking yet again his constitutional limits. He thus became the Superman ruler of Egypt: the CEO, the legislator and the magistrate. 

The MBs, with their president, who only spoke to them, has created institutional enemies everywhere all the time. Media, Judges, intellectuals, tourism sector, police officers, professionals, academia and workers  has all been alienated one way or another either by violent actions, or appointment of incompetent MBs in leading positions, or proposed laws of exclusion together with threats to all privet TV stations, reporters and private sector big companies. 

The Morsi government has succeeded to generate this ill-advised militancy single handed in only few months. He broke promises to seek consensus with secular and opposition forces.  After forcing through the constitution which divided the country, he tried nonstop to impose his control over the judiciary, media and civil society groups.  MBs also have devised laws that would tilt future elections in its favor. 

Perhaps more significantly, MBs government has infuriated average Egyptians with its poor management. Cities were plagued with power outages and fuel shortages, inflation and unemployment were growing and investment was dormant. It was the Brothers’ complacency, that alienated their revolutionary allies and, more important, the majority of Egyptian people.  

I think Egyptian military had hoped to relieve itself of the burden of everyday governance in order to focus on more pressing concerns: rebuilding its capacity as a combat force; diversifying its sources of hardware beyond the US; demilitarizing Sinai; and finding ways to project its power in the region. They expected the Islamists to pacify the street. But the Brothers proved to be the worst sort of negotiator: unprincipled and incompetent. None of the three contenders in Egypt’s post-revolt political sphere was strong enough to rule alone: the old regime was resented; the Islamists were inexperienced; and the activists were clueless.  

Alliances were needed to break the deadlock. Because the Brothers controlled the executive and the legislature, the ball was in their court. For months, people put their lives on hold, wondering when and how the stalemate would come to an end. But the Brothers were unwilling to compromise. Their plan was to win over the agents of coercion, but they failed to see that their intransigence would drive their political opponents into a tactical alliance against them, and that such an alliance would force the military to revise its stance. 

General Commander Sisi offered to broker an agreement, but the Brothers flexed their muscles, deploying armed supporters to clear the anti-Islamist sit-in around the presidential palace in December 2012, killing and torturing dozens in the process (of all the court cases faced by Morsi and his aides, this is the one I believe  that poses the biggest danger to them). As tensions in the country grew, a body of Rebellions (tamarod) called on the people to take to the streets on 30th, June 2013 to force early elections or referendum about MBs president to complete his presidency or not. The campaign won the support of all non-Islamist powers, and revolutionary alike. There was an attempt to exclude groups previously considered part of the old regime from the movement, but the revolutionaries couldn’t build a solid enough front on their own, and finally decided that their best option was to throw in their lot with their past tormentors. Trading their revolutionary aspirations for a modest reform agenda seemed better than allowing an Islamist regime to remain in charge. 

Yet the Brothers’ adversaries would not have been able to field enough foot soldiers to ensure the army’s co-operation had the masses abstained. 2013 summer’s popular outburst was historically unprecedented. Millions took to the streets, not once, but three times in the space of a month: to rebel against MBs on 30 June, to celebrate his overthrow on 3 July, and to express their defiance of Islamist violence on 26 July. Even if anyone agree with the MBs allegations  that some of the protesters were paid by the old regime, and that others were persuaded to get involved by the anti-Islamist media yet they cannot deny that  six decades of political bribes and state propaganda never brought out a fraction of that number: Mubarak couldn’t get more than a hundred thousand supporters onto the streets either at the height of his power or in the moment of his final desperation; and demonstrations on behalf of the old regime during the 18 months between Mubarak’s downfall and Morsi’s election barely mustered a few thousand. The reality is that the Islamists alone provoked this unsurpassed popular eruption: the Brothers’ dismal performance in government is what ultimately convinced even the most passive of citizens – the so-called ‘sofa party’ – to leave the comfort of their homes. 

Perhaps the Brothers underestimated the electorate. People would still vote for us, they boasted, even if we nominated a dead dog. It wasn’t exactly flattering. Stubborn and scornful of the people as Mubarak was, he was wise enough to grasp that he had to make concessions to gain popular support. In each of the three speeches he delivered during the revolt of 2011, he gave significant ground. First he dismissed the cabinet, then the leadership of the ruling party, he brought an acceptable face to opposition to replace his old guards to lead NDP, he dissolved the infamous Policy Committee and formed a committee to purge the constitution of unpopular clauses; and then he pledged that neither he nor his son would run in the presidential elections, which were only nine months away. Morsi, in contrast, wouldn’t even reshuffle his cabinet or reinforce his legitimacy with a popular referendum. Warned of looming rebellion, he described his opponents as a handful of old regime scoundrels, and delivered an incredible two and a half hour speech ridiculing his enemies by name and laughing repeatedly at his own jokes. After being shown helicopter-recorded footage of the millions demonstrating against him, he maintained that this ‘Photoshop revolution’ actually involved no more than a few thousand people. In a second record-breaking speech (as it turned out, his last), he shook his fist repeatedly, and insisted he was Egypt’s legitimate leader 98 times in 45 minutes. What his audience saw was not the arrogance of power but the vanity of a fool. 

This was a historic uncoupling of Islam and Islamism in the Muslim popular psyche. There were two reasons for it, one secular, and the other religious. As citizens, people were appalled by the Brothers’ incompetence in government; and as Muslims, they were outraged by the use of their religion to explain away this incompetence. The Brothers had flaunted Islam to excuse their authoritarianism. The people no longer saw them as god-fearing underdogs striving for power so that they could implement Islam, but as another set of corrupt politicians using Islam to justify themselves. They also detected a darker, more sinister side to the Morsi presidency. The religious zeal his election inspired wasn’t taken seriously at first. People were amused to learn that their elected president was seen as the long-awaited liberator that he was a reincarnation from the time of the Prophet, and that anyone carrying his picture to their grave would be ensured a safe passage through purgatory. They also noted the frequent denunciation of the government’s critics as enemies of Islam; the creation of armed groups to monitor public morality; the declaration of a Jihad against Shiites; the release of thousands of militants by presidential amnesty (to be available to terrorize opponents when needed); and the subsequent declaration of an Islamist mini-emirate at the heart of Sinai. 

On the eve of the June uprising, Islamists set up camp outside the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque in Cairo and stayed there for forty nights. People would drop by to have a look and to hear what was being said. What they witnessed stiffened their will to rebel. They saw Al-Qaida banners at every corner; heard that the al-Qaida leader, the Egyptian medic Ayman al-Zawahri, was making terrorist threats on the Brothers’ behalf; and listened to speeches rallying militants from around the globe, encouraging them to blow themselves up in public squares. Opponents were collectively excommunicated, and threatened with eternal damnation; David’s battle with Goliath was invoked as were the Prophet’s victories over infidels and hypocrites. Any numbers of grandiose claims were made: that the Archangel Gabriel prayed among the Brothers and Prophet Mohamed prayed behind him!! 

This is why most Egyptians accepted the interim government’s designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization in December 2013. Everyone knows that the actual perpetrators of violence are the Brothers’ unruly allies: al-Qaida-style groups such as Ansar beit al-Maqdis and Al-Jama’a al-Islamiya. But by turning a political clash into a fully-fledged religious war between Islam and its enemies, the Brothers created a context for terror. In the eyes of their compatriots, they were ultimately responsible for every car bomb, suicide attack and assassination, as well as the ceaseless attacks on churches and museums. 

 Moslem brotherhood wanted to change the identity of Egypt and they failed.