Hossam Badrawi Official Website
In recent months, and before the crisis of the Covid pandemic, I conducted a new live experiment in the Egyptian street before the state announced the call for the elections for the second chamber of the Egyptian Parliament weeks ago, under a different name, the Senate. Many labor union leaders, farmers, many political leaders at the level of centers and villages of all sects, a number of independent parliamentarians, and even some of the parties represented in Parliament flocked to meet me, in order to discover the new. After the experience, I came out with the following results, which I summarize because they may give us a vision of the next political steps that may protect the country and maintain political stability, God willing.
First: The culture of most of the partisan political community is still the pursuit of approaching and shadowing the executive authority. And I clearly noticed that the desire of this political community revolves around two orbits, the first of which is the fear of the security services to consider them hostile to the state, which negatively affects them and hinders the development of their businesses. The other aspect is that this majority needs to announce that it is with the current of the state and its apparatus (as they call it) so that they can serve their constituencies and gain political prestige in their local communities.
Second: The next influential political force is the power of money and finance. I have noticed that the effect of this is great, but it is not indispensable to the first, and there is no objection to it, and it is preferable if the financing is in line with the first force and is supported by the consent of the state apparatus. Candidacy has a price, and winning has a price, which may make us see who does not deserve to become a member of Parliament, in connection with his financial solvency and not his political and parliamentary giving.. The impact of direct financial funding on the popular level increases during the elections, whether it affects the selection bodies of candidates or the purchase of votes in a society where the poverty rate is close to 40%.
..and here I am drawing a reality that everyone knows, and it is a reality resulting from a climate that existed before..and still is.
Third: The third force is the revolutionary ideology and opposition to everything in general, which presents the demolition of any reality without positive alternatives. Few of those I met are of this type, and their voice is loud, their screaming is intense, and their impact will only be in demonstrating or boycotting, and creating and consolidating a media mental image at home and abroad that suggests that Egypt is unstable, and uses all means to magnify and generalize mistakes, and sometimes the state gives them the means to do so.
– I do not see them as an electoral value, but I see their impact in creating and sustaining negative energy in society, which increases the anger of groups of people in the gray political zone, draining this category of society and attracting it to discontent and psychological instability.
Fourth: The fourth force is the left-wing political trend with a loud voice in the media, but throughout modern history it has not once obtained a parliamentary majority, and it tends to take advantage of the second and third forces when it has the opportunity. This current may be behind the movement of sit-ins and strikes between employees and unions, but most of it will join the first force if it appears.
Fifth: Brotherhood forces, which I fear, due to their apparent unpopularity now, will infiltrate the circles of other forces to ride waves of anger when necessary, and work continuously to widen the gap between aspirations and reality, and focus on any mistakes of the government administration in dealing with society, and not consider any important achievement It was.
At this time, they are forces that cannot win elections unless they hide behind a group or a party. And let us not forget that the Brotherhood has allied itself with the Wafd Party twice, which is the historical liberal party, once in 84 and again in 2012.
I see that the Brotherhood’s electoral bloc, which may reach more than a million voters, will continue to represent a magnet for political opportunism in obtaining votes in any form, and the “al-Wafd” experience twice before me will teach me that everything is possible in politics, unfortunately.
We must not forget here that there is an official recognized political party for the Salafists, the Nour Party, and its goals are declared. Although this violates the articles of the constitution, it still exists, and the bridge of democracy may be used to gain influence in the government. We do not forget that the Salafi cultural trend is increasing its social influence in Egypt, especially after closing the doors to it in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.. As Professor Mahmoud Al-Saadani, the cynical writer once told me about communism: “The factory is closed, doctor in Russia, and the agent is working in Egypt.” Reactionary and political Salafism is closing in the kingdom, and the agent is getting stronger in Egypt.
Finding a new path that allows for political stability without repeating the one-party model of the executive authority is not easy with the spread of poverty, according to the latest state report, to more than 32 million citizens, and the high level of illiteracy.
With all due respect, the model of the Future of a Homeland party is seen by the entire political community as subservient to the executive authority, and the Youth Coordination is similar to the experience of the Youth Organization in the sixties without ideology or leader, which I see as an absence of political imagination and attempts to reformulate the past in the same way awaiting different results.
As for the security services, it is necessary not to expand their political role as an actor, and I understand their interference to fill the political vacuum for fear of chaos after the people got rid of the Brotherhood. Its neutral scope of work is between political forces in order to preserve the law and the rights of all, no matter how good the intentions are, as a party to a political competition behind the scenes.
To summarize my study of the political reality, the formation of a strong political party backer with a majority will not have a list without the president, i.e. a president, and the use of his popularity. Continuity and stability of the country, not only during the rule of President A
for Sisi but then too.
Democracy in its western form is changing, and unfortunately, it has failed in developing and poor countries where illiteracy is rampant, so how can we find a balance between the right to freedom while not allowing chaos?!. It is “the justice system, law enforcement agencies, and education.” Three pillars to achieve the difficult equation with increasing wealth and social guarantees of rights, the first of which are health, housing, and transportation. All of them are possible in Egypt in one decade, because I believe that Egypt is a rich country and possesses the pillars of the Renaissance.
In my opinion, the president has the credibility of the historical opportunity to be the spiritual father of all, and the experience of the Senate elections, the opportunity to appoint a third of the members, and the absolute state control over the candidate coalitions may be an opportunity to select the best and combine the experience and political knowledge of the sheikhs with the apparent and latent energy of the youth with the best rules, a departure from narrowness The area of the current choice angles and the balance of forces that I described at the beginning of the article.
We have an opportunity in the Senate to be of assistance in a new political stage, in which stability is institutional and sustainable.. I hope that we do not miss a new opportunity, and we view the Senate with a positive view on the part of the people and on the part of the state. The people have to trust in the future, and the state has to make better choices.
