Dr. Hossam Badrawi Official Website
(The Statistics Authority indicated that the total number of births amounted to 2.3 million births in 2020, which means 186 thousand births every month, and about 6000 births per day, i.e. 255 births per hour, which is equivalent to 4 births per minute, i.e. a new born in Egypt every 14 seconds).
The demographic challenge must be our priority in our view of development in Egypt, and we realize the imbalance between population numbers and growth, natural resources and economic growth, and the impact of this imbalance on the social, health and welfare aspects of society.
The dimensions of the population problem can be viewed through three factors:
– Increasing population growth rates – Decreased level of demographic characteristics (health – educational – social – economic) – Unbalanced geographical distribution of the population.
These dimensions interact with each other in such a way that it is difficult to bring about real development without a balanced confrontation with it. They also interact with all aspects of economic and social development, affect the degree of stability and progress in society, and reduce the return of efforts aimed at improving the quality of life of the Egyptian person, and this requires the integration of population goals. with development plans.
At the end of 2021, the population of Egypt will reach about 104 million, an increase of 67 million people over 2001 (the beginning of the century). The percentage of the population for the age group less than 15 years reached about 37% in 2001 compared to 34.2% in 2021, and the percentage of females of childbearing age increased to 26%.
A question we ask the community: What if we do not continue and intensify efforts towards the success of family planning programs?
I remind the reader of this part of an article I wrote at the beginning of the twenty-first century, to see what expectations were, how they became, and how they will be.
The article says: “If the current situation continues without fruitful efforts for family planning, the population of Egypt will reach 120 million in 2030, but if efforts, coordination and integration between the various sectors of the state with the civil sector are intensified, and we achieve our national goal, which is two children at most. For every woman, the population in the same year will be in the range of 108 million people, i.e. 12 million people underpopulation, which is not a simple goal.”
I also said in 2001: “Expectations, studies of housing projections, and a cost and feasibility study for the National Family Planning Program have shown that investing 4 billion pounds in this program over fifteen years will save the state 137 billion pounds, which it will spend on education, health, housing, drinking water, sanitation, and food support to absorb The 10 million people who will be a burden on the state in these areas.”
I also said: “Studies have proven that every pound spent on family planning in this sense achieves a return of 33.8 pounds, which prompts us to emphasize the call for investment in Egyptian family planning.”
Let’s put the realistic numbers for 2020, and see how the reality has exceeded the foresight of the future as a result of society’s failure in family planning programs and the social and economic burden that the current and future generation bears.
The principles we believe in for the National Population Policy are:
Acknowledgment of the family’s right to choose the appropriate number of its children, with no more than two, and the right to obtain information and the means that enable it to implement its decision in this regard.
Providing all means of family planning, and adopting systems of positive incentives based on increasing individual and group awareness of family planning. As for resorting to methods characterized by pressure, it will depend on depriving the family of its positive economic incentives provided by the state in the event of having more than three children. Poverty (32 million people) and ignorance (28 million illiterates) are rampant.
I remind the reader of Dr. Taha Hussein’s saying: “Illiteracy is not only in reading and writing, but in reading, writing and understanding,” and today I add to it “that illiteracy is increasing in its definition by the concept of digital because it is the language of the age, and whoever is not digital is outside the scope of modern life.”
The respected man, Abu Bakr al-Jundi, reminded me of the facts of the population problem, that it lies in its greatest aspect in the imbalance between population growth and economic growth, and the insufficiency of resources and capabilities to provide the necessary services such as education, health care, roads, housing and basic foodstuffs at reasonable prices.. This imbalance led to Between population and resources, and the state’s inability to play its developmental role, the living standards of many groups in society have declined, and their demographic characteristics are declining. The illiteracy rate has reached about 25%, according to what was announced by the Adult Education Authority, while UNESCO stated that the illiteracy rate was 28% in 2019 of the total population of ten years or more, and this percentage rises among females to 30.8% and among males 21%, and the poverty rate in the last survey of income, expenditure and consumption in 2019/2020 reached about 30% of the population, this percentage rises in the countryside of Upper Egypt to more than 48 The average actual household consumption of the poorest 10% of the population amounted to about 20,000 pounds annually for the family, at about 1,800 pounds per month, that is, below the average poverty line, which amounts to about 2,000 pounds per family.
The phenomenon of early marriage emerges as one of the tributaries and causes of this problem, as the percentage of married females (less than 20 years old) reached about 27% of the total married females in 2015, and with the continuation of the current levels of childbearing (3.5 children per woman), it is estimated that the number will reach Egypt’s population by the end of the National Development Strategy 2030 will reach about 120 million, and increase to 150 million after another 13 years (2043).
The question is: Can society with its available capabilities achieve a balance between population and resources, which requires that the rates of economic development be three times the population growth rates in order to maintain the current standards of living that we are not satisfied with, at least?!
These rapid increases in population numbers will have clear effects on all aspects of life, especially the sectors that are considered the basis for the development of the population.
The demographic challenge must be our priority in our view of development in Egypt, and we realize the imbalance between population numbers and growth, natural resources and economic growth, and the impact of this imbalance on the social, health and welfare aspects of society.
The dimensions of the population problem can be viewed through three factors:
– Increasing population growth rates – Decreased level of demographic characteristics (health – educational – social – economic) – Unbalanced geographical distribution of the population.
These dimensions interact with each other in such a way that it is difficult to bring about real development without a balanced confrontation with it. They also interact with all aspects of economic and social development, affect the degree of stability and progress in society, and reduce the return of efforts aimed at improving the quality of life of the Egyptian person, and this requires the integration of population goals. with development plans.
At the end of 2021, the population of Egypt will reach about 104 million, an increase of 67 million people over 2001 (the beginning of the century). The percentage of the population for the age group less than 15 years reached about 37% in 2001 compared to 34.2% in 2021, and the percentage of females of childbearing age increased to 26%.
A question we ask the community: What if we do not continue and intensify efforts towards the success of family planning programs?
I remind the reader of this part of an article I wrote at the beginning of the twenty-first century, to see what expectations were, how they became, and how they will be.
The article says: “If the current situation continues without fruitful efforts for family planning, the population of Egypt will reach 120 million in 2030, but if efforts, coordination and integration between the various sectors of the state with the civil sector are intensified, and we achieve our national goal, which is two children at most. For every woman, the population in the same year will be in the range of 108 million people, i.e. 12 million people underpopulation, which is not a simple goal.”
I also said in 2001: “Expectations, studies of housing projections, and a cost and feasibility study for the National Family Planning Program have shown that investing 4 billion pounds in this program over fifteen years will save the state 137 billion pounds, which it will spend on education, health, housing, drinking water, sanitation, and food support to absorb The 10 million people who will be a burden on the state in these areas.”
I also said: “Studies have proven that every pound spent on family planning in this sense achieves a return of 33.8 pounds, which prompts us to emphasize the call for investment in Egyptian family planning.”
Let’s put the realistic numbers for 2020, and see how the reality has exceeded the foresight of the future as a result of society’s failure in family planning programs and the social and economic burden that the current and future generation bears.
The principles we believe in for the National Population Policy are:
Acknowledgment of the family’s right to choose the appropriate number of its children, with no more than two, and the right to obtain information and the means that enable it to implement its decision in this regard.
Providing all means of family planning, and adopting systems of positive incentives based on increasing individual and group awareness of family planning. As for resorting to methods characterized by pressure, it will depend on depriving the family of its positive economic incentives provided by the state in the event of having more than three children. Poverty (32 million people) and ignorance (28 million illiterates) are rampant.
I remind the reader of Dr. Taha Hussein’s saying: “Illiteracy is not only in reading and writing, but in reading, writing and understanding,” and today I add to it “that illiteracy is increasing in its definition by the concept of digital because it is the language of the age, and whoever is not digital is outside the scope of modern life.”
The respected man, Abu Bakr al-Jundi, reminded me of the facts of the population problem, that it lies in its greatest aspect in the imbalance between population growth and economic growth, and the insufficiency of resources and capabilities to provide the necessary services such as education, health care, roads, housing and basic foodstuffs at reasonable prices.. This imbalance led to Between population and resources, and the state’s inability to play its developmental role, the living standards of many groups in society have declined, and their demographic characteristics are declining. The illiteracy rate has reached about 25%, according to what was announced by the Adult Education Authority, while UNESCO stated that the illiteracy rate was 28% in 2019 of the total population of ten years or more, and this percentage rises among females to 30.8% and among males 21%, and the poverty rate in the last survey of income, expenditure and consumption in 2019/2020 reached about 30% of the population, this percentage rises in the countryside of Upper Egypt to more than 48 The average actual household consumption of the poorest 10% of the population amounted to about 20,000 pounds annually for the family, at about 1,800 pounds per month, that is, below the average poverty line, which amounts to about 2,000 pounds per family.
The phenomenon of early marriage emerges as one of the tributaries and causes of this problem, as the percentage of married females (less than 20 years old) reached about 27% of the total married females in 2015, and with the continuation of the current levels of childbearing (3.5 children per woman), it is estimated that the number will reach Egypt’s population by the end of the National Development Strategy 2030 will reach about 120 million, and increase to 150 million after another 13 years (2043).
The question is: Can society with its available capabilities achieve a balance between population and resources, which requires that the rates of economic development be three times the population growth rates in order to maintain the current standards of living that we are not satisfied with, at least?!
These rapid increases in population numbers will have clear effects on all aspects of life, especially the sectors that are considered the basis for the development of the population.
The reality of sustainable inclusive development, which is education, health and employment, and the huge investments that it requires to meet the increasing numbers in demand for its services.. The education sector will require more investments to maintain absorption rates, and this will have consequences for attempts to improve the quality and quality of the educational process. As for the primary stage only, to accommodate approximately 5 million children by 2030 requires the addition of nearly 100,000 classes, each of which costs approximately 300,000 pounds (at current prices), and we will need only about 300 billion pounds to prepare to receive these classes. The numbers, ie, an average of about 20 billion pounds annually, during this additional period, for the primary stage only.
In light of this population increase, we will need to increase the number of health units to about 3000 health units by 2030, in order to ensure the continuation of health services at the level that we are not currently satisfied with. There is no doubt that these expansions require more investments in all sectors of health services, in addition to the cost of increasing the number of doctors required, rehabilitating them, upgrading their level and keeping them inside the country.
As for the employment sector and the creation of productive job opportunities to absorb the annual entrants to the labor market as a result of the rapid population increases, which is expected to add about 10 million people desiring to work until 2030, and given that the average cost of creating job opportunities is at a minimum about 50 thousand The total additional investment required amounts to about five thousand billion pounds, or about 33 billion pounds annually during this period.
This simple presentation of the effects of the accelerating population increase on a limited number of sustainable inclusive development sectors illustrates the danger of continuing this situation, given the huge investments that it requires that exceed the capabilities of society at the present time, so that these numbers can be rehabilitated to become productive elements that represent real additional energy for society.
These facts call for a serious societal pause in order to evaluate population policies and their repercussions on sustainable development strategies, in order to arrive at a program of work that is realistic, clear and feasible, and ensures the implementation of community goals in achieving a balance between population and resources.
In light of this population increase, we will need to increase the number of health units to about 3000 health units by 2030, in order to ensure the continuation of health services at the level that we are not currently satisfied with. There is no doubt that these expansions require more investments in all sectors of health services, in addition to the cost of increasing the number of doctors required, rehabilitating them, upgrading their level and keeping them inside the country.
As for the employment sector and the creation of productive job opportunities to absorb the annual entrants to the labor market as a result of the rapid population increases, which is expected to add about 10 million people desiring to work until 2030, and given that the average cost of creating job opportunities is at a minimum about 50 thousand The total additional investment required amounts to about five thousand billion pounds, or about 33 billion pounds annually during this period.
This simple presentation of the effects of the accelerating population increase on a limited number of sustainable inclusive development sectors illustrates the danger of continuing this situation, given the huge investments that it requires that exceed the capabilities of society at the present time, so that these numbers can be rehabilitated to become productive elements that represent real additional energy for society.
These facts call for a serious societal pause in order to evaluate population policies and their repercussions on sustainable development strategies, in order to arrive at a program of work that is realistic, clear and feasible, and ensures the implementation of community goals in achieving a balance between population and resources.
